A visual guide to Bayesian thinking 463 3 14997 Rationality JuliaGalef Upvote Subscribe More by JuliaGalef: How to spot a rationalization A visual guide to Bayesian thinking Don't be a sphex Shoulding at the universe
Thanks, helpful and interesting stuff. Makes me think about how often I see people who remind me of Mormon people in how they dress, and how I then often assume they are probably Mormon. Where I live now, the population of Mormons is notably high for areas outside the typical US "Mormon Belt" in Utah/Nevada (where I grew up) at about 4%, and knowing this contributes to my forgetting of prior bases. If 75% of Mormons dress this way and 10% of not-Mormons dress this way, I guess anybody dressed that way in my current location is three times more likely to be not mormon than mormon.
Fantastic video! Really helped me to clarify some things.
Thanks for the amazing video.